The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index is a forward-looking indicator of future existing-home sales that measures the number of contract signings each month. In January, the Index was virtually unchanged, rising 0.1 percent above December’s upwardly revised estimate. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said ongoing disruptive weather patterns across much of the U.S. have inhibited home shopping. Yun believes that weather, combined with low inventory and declining affordability levels, have slowed home sales. But despite slowing this winter, the sales pace is expected to pick up after the first quarter and total existing-home sales are projected to reach over 5 million by the end of the year. Regionally, pending sales rose in both the Northeast and South, while dropping in the West and Midwest. Yun says new home construction may be the key to alleviating inventory issues and taming price growth. The median existing-home price is expected to grow 5 to 6 percent in 2014. More here.
Tag Archive for new home construction
New Home Constructions Stalls In January
After hitting a five-year high in November, new residential construction has since stalled, joining a number of other economic indicators that have slowed due to the severe winter weather affecting much of the country. According to estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, single-family housing starts fell 15.9 percent in January. Building permits for future construction also slipped during the month, dropping 1.3 percent from the revised December estimate. The declines were largely expected and credited to a particularly harsh winter. For example, new home construction was down 67.7 percent in the Midwest, where record snow and frigid temperatures disrupted groundbreakings. Year-over-year, building permits were up 2.4 percent over last year, while housing starts came in 2 percent below year-before levels. More here.
Trends Point To Healthy Housing Market in 2014
In 2013, home prices and buyer demand both spiked as the housing recovery took hold in markets across the country. Double-digit increases in home values brought prices to a level last seen in 2004. But, according to Zillow’s November Real Estate Market Report, annual and monthly price trends indicate the robust recovery seen throughout 2013 is beginning to slow to more sustainable levels. The slowing price growth is partly driven by decreasing negative equity rates. As homeowners recoup value lost during the recent recession, more of those homes are put up for sale which increases inventory levels and normalizes price gains. And in addition to an increasing supply of previously owned homes, new home construction is expected to ramp up over the next year, adding further relief to constrained inventory levels across the country. If these trends continue, 2014 will likely see improved for-sale inventory levels, slower price increases, and more potential buyers entering the market to purchase homes. More here.
New Home Construction Surges, Signals Stronger Economy
According to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, new residential construction spiked 22.7 percent in November and is now nearly 30 percent above last year’s level. The increase was the largest since January 1990 and brought housing starts to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,091,000. Despite the improvement, new home construction remains below historical average. From 1959 through 2000, housing starts averaged 1.5 million per year. Still, with single-family housing starts up 20.8 percent month-over-month and demographics and household formation suggesting more growth, new home construction should continue to improve. The gains were better than economists expected and indicate a strengthening economy. More here.
Fed Report A Mixed Bag On Housing Market
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book tracks economic activity across the country based on reports from the Fed’s 12 districts. The report focuses on a number of economic sectors, including manufacturing, consumer spending, agriculture, employment, banking, and real estate. According to the most recent release, residential real-estate activity improved in many areas, while remaining steady or softening in others. Home sales remain largely above year-ago levels, though there was some slowing as the summer sales season wrapped up. Increasing demand, declining levels of inventory, and rising new-home construction were cited by the report as the reason behind continuing home price increases, though prices are increasing at a slower pace now than in early 2013. Lower residential mortgage activity was also reported in many district but several saw better credit quality as delinquencies decline and fewer problem loans are reported. More here and here.