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Bad Weather Takes Toll On Builder Confidence

February 19, 2014 Housing Market Comments Off on Bad Weather Takes Toll On Builder Confidence

Since hitting its recent peak of 58 last August, builder confidence has remained above 50 through the fall and early winter, according to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index. In fact, the index – which measures confidence on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor – remained high through January, when it showed a reading of 56. But harsh winter weather took a toll on optimism in February, contributing to an unexpected 10-point drop in the index. Kevin Kelly, NAHB’s chairman, said significant weather conditions across most of the country led to a decline in buyer traffic which, combined with concerns about the availability of skilled workers, developed lots, and building materials, led to the dip in confidence. The results show builders less confident across all three major components of the index, though the components measuring current conditions and future sales expectations remained above 50 despite the declines. More here.

Older Buyers Boost Builders’ Expectations

February 5, 2014 Housing Market Comments Off on Older Buyers Boost Builders’ Expectations

Recently surveyed builders expressed surging confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes among buyers age 55 and up. According to the results of the latest National Association of Home Builders 55+ Housing Market Index – which measures builders’ confidence on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor – confidence in the market for single-family homes increased 20 points year-over-year to a level of 48, the highest fourth-quarter reading since the NAHB began tracking the data in 2008. Robert Karen, chairman of the NAHB’s 50+ Housing Council, said they are seeing continued improvement in the 55+ housing market because consumers have gained confidence in the economy and are able to sell their current homes and move into a new home or condo that fits the lifestyle they desire. Karen expects this optimism from builders and developers to carry through 2014. All individual components of the single-family HMI showed significant improvement, with confidence in present sales levels climbing 26 points from one year ago. More here.

Builder Confidence Levels Off In January

January 17, 2014 Housing Market Comments Off on Builder Confidence Levels Off In January

After an unexpected spike in December, builder confidence in the market for newly-built, single-family homes fell a point to 56 in January, according to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index. The index – derived from a monthly survey conducted for the past 25 years – scores builders’ perception of the current market on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. Rick Judson, NAHB’s chairman, said January’s results show that confidence is holding at a solid level. According to Judson, the fact that many markets are showing improvement bodes well for future sales of new homes. Still, all three index components suffered declines in January. The index gauging current sales fell one point to 62, while future sales dropped two and buyer traffic slipped three points. Regionally, the three-month moving averages found the Northeast and West both up four points. The South was unchanged at 56 and the Midwest fell a point to 58. NAHB chief economist David Crowe believes rising home prices, historically low mortgage rates, and significant pent-up demand will continue driving the recovery in the year ahead. More here.

Smaller Metros Leading The Housing Recovery

January 15, 2014 Housing Market Comments Off on Smaller Metros Leading The Housing Recovery

Nationwide, housing and economic activity is 86 percent back to normal, based on current permits, prices, and employment data. In fact, more than 35 percent of all markets tracked by The National Association of Home Builders Leading Market Index are operating at 90 percent or better of their previous normal. The index tracks 350 metro areas across the country and identifies those that are now approaching or exceeding their previous norms. According to the most recent release, 56 out of those 350 have returned to or surpassed their normal levels of economic and housing activity. And nearly half of the improved markets are areas with populations less than 500,000. David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, said 45 percent of metro areas are recovering at a faster pace than the nation as a whole, with smaller markets leading the way. The results are a good sign that the housing recovery’s progress will continue in 2014. More here.

Builders Optimistic About New Home Sales

December 18, 2013 Housing Market Comments Off on Builders Optimistic About New Home Sales

All three components of the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index improved in December. The three index components, which measure current sales conditions, sales expectations, and traffic of prospective buyers, are scored on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. According to the most recent release, the current-sales component jumped six points to 64, while the index measuring expectations for future sales rose two points to 62 and traffic of prospective buyers increased three points to 44. David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, said the recent spike in mortgage rates has not deterred consumers, as rates are still near historically low levels. Crowe believes this month’s gain is due, in part, to the release of pent-up demand caused by the uncertainty surrounding October’s government shutdown. Overall, builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes improved four points to a reading of 58. More here.

Housing Gradually Recovering Lost Ground

December 16, 2013 Housing Market Comments Off on Housing Gradually Recovering Lost Ground

Housing markets across the country are gradually recovering and even exceeding previous normal levels of economic and housing activity, according to the latest Leading Markets Index from the National Association of Home Builders. The NAHB scores more than 350 metro areas by taking their average permit, price, and employment levels for the past 12 months and dividing it by their annual average during the last period of normal growth. Based on that score, the index ranks markets that have reached or surpassed their previous normal level. The most recent release found 55 housing markets operating at or above their previous norm. Nationwide, the housing market was at 85 percent normal growth. Rick Judson, NAHB’s chairman, said the index shows that most housing markets across the country are continuing a slow, gradual climb back to normal levels. There were more than 125 markets showing activity of at least 90 percent of their previous norm. More here.

Builder Confidence Unchanged in November

November 22, 2013 Housing Market Comments Off on Builder Confidence Unchanged in November

Conducted for the past 25 years, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index gauges builders’ perception of the market for newly built, single-family homes. Results are scored on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. The survey asks builders for their view of current sales, sales expectations for the next six months, and buyer traffic. This month’s results showed no change from the month before, holding steady at 54. Rick Judson, NAHB’s chairman, said given the current interest rate and pricing environment, consumers continue to show interest in purchasing new homes. But, according to Judson, Congress has failed to make critical decisions on budget, tax, and spending issues, which has eroded consumer confidence and caused some potential buyers to hold back. More here.

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