According to Freddie Mac’s U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for March, home sales will continue to increase this year, despite higher mortgage rates and home prices. The forecast – which projects a 3 percent rise in sales for 2014 – is based on a belief that the job market and wage growth will both continue to improve. Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s vice president and chief economist, said with more jobs, wage growth should continue to accelerate, giving Americans the income to buy homes and help sustain the emerging purchase market. Despite an unemployment rate that is still stubbornly high, Nothaft believes improvement in economic growth will help boost both construction and manufacturing employment, which are the sectors of the economy that have been slowest to recover. In fact, there are 1.5 million fewer construction jobs than there were in December 2007. Freddie Mac’s outlook also calls for moderate price increases and an almost 20 percent increase in new home construction this year. More here.
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Job Growth To Drive Housing Market In 2014
Industry experts and market analysts expect housing to continue to build on last year’s gains in 2014. Home prices – which rose 11 percent last year – will continue to rise, though at a slower rate. And those price increases will lead to fewer underwater homeowners and, as more homes are put up for sale, improved inventory levels. In addition to rising home values, analysts expect higher mortgage rates in the new year, though they believe it’ll have little effect on buyer demand, which is expected to remain at a healthy level. Celia Chen, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, predicts job growth will spur a surge in new residential construction this year. Chen believes the economy will add about 200,000 jobs a month, leading to greater housing demand and increased homebuilding activity. The spike in new residential construction will lead to even more jobs and support a stronger, growing economy in 2014, according to Chen. More here.
New Home Construction On The Rise
According to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, permits to build new single-family homes rose 3 percent in August, reaching their highest level since 2008. The improvement, combined with a 7 percent jump in single-family housing starts, provides more evidence of a consistent and sustained recovery in the residential housing market. And, in addition to the obvious benefits to housing, gains in new-home construction are closely tied to the broader economy. In fact, economists’ estimate that every new home built leads to the creation of three jobs for a year. Demand for new homes is expected to continue, as household formation numbers recover from historic lows. More here and here.