Americans’ view of the economy took a hit following the government shutdown and debt ceiling debate. And, because this winter will see additional budget and debt issues – in addition to the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair in January – the most recent forecast from Fannie Mae’s economic & Strategic Research Group sees a few more months of suppressed consumer spending and economic growth. Still, the outlook calls for growth to pick up next year, as the labor market improves and the fiscal drag wanes. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, said the November economic and housing forecast reflects many of the themes from the previous month, especially the effect of government gridlock on consumer attitudes. Sentiment toward housing also weakened because of the shutdown, despite low single-family mortgage rates and continued year-over-year price gains. More here.
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Fiscal Debates Have Minimal Effect On Housing
The recent government shutdown, debate over the debt ceiling, and ongoing fiscal uncertainty threatens to slow an expected pickup in overall economic growth this quarter, according to Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group. As a result, the ESR group has downgraded their forecast for full-year growth. But despite the slight change in projected economic activity, the housing market is expected to continue to improve. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, said these fiscal policy issues appear to have had only a minimal effect on the housing market and, because prices rose rapidly over the past year, household net worth should be able to withstand any fallout. Duncan added that the continuation of the Fed’s securities purchases should keep mortgage rates down, helping more homeowners take advantage of refinance opportunities. More here.