According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates saw mixed results last week, with little movement from the week before across all loan categories including 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, 15-year fixed-rate loans, and 5/1 ARMs. Though steady, rates remain up from last month’s lows and that’s pushed demand for mortgage applications lower, with purchase loan activity down 5 percent last week. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says buyers are still in better position than they were last year at this time. “Even though rates have been on a recent upswing, they are over a full percentage point lower than a year ago, which has kept some home buyers in the market,” Kan said. “For-sale inventory has started to loosen, and home-price growth has eased in some markets, providing more options for buyers in combination with these lower rates.” The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

The quickest way to solve an inventory problem is to create new supply. That’s certainly true for the housing market. When there are few available homes for sale and current homeowners don’t look likely to sell, new home construction can help fill the gap. And luckily for today’s home buyers, builders have been doing just that. In fact, according to one new analysis, roughly 1 million single-family homes were completed in 2023 – the second highest total since before the housing crash and financial crisis nearly 15 years ago. It’s also about 11 percent higher than in 2019, before the pandemic. That’s good news for home shoppers, as more homes available for sale – whether old or new – help keep prices in check. But while the gains are encouraging, we aren’t there quite yet. Estimates show for-sale inventory was down as much as 4.5 million homes as recently as 2022. (source)

Most home buyers need a loan to buy a house, which makes access to credit a potentially important factor in the home buying process – even if it isn’t as closely followed as the ups-and-downs of home prices and mortgage rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association follows access to credit, though, and its monthly Mortgage Credit Availability Index gives potential borrowers a look at whether lending standards are loosening or tightening. In September, the index fell 0.5 percent on a scale where any decline indicates standards have tightened. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says economic uncertainty has credit restrained. “Mortgage credit availability tightened slightly in September as lenders remained cautious in this uncertain economic environment,” Kan said. According to Kan, there was a decline in some loan programs for cash-out refinances and jumbo loans but the government index saw an increase due to more VA streamline refinances. (source)

Home builders have a unique perspective on the housing market. After all, their success depends on being able to know what buyers want, where they want it, and when. That’s why the National Association of Home Builders’ monthly Housing Market Index – which measures builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes – is a closely watched barometer of market health. If builders feel good about their prospects, chances are the market is in good shape. The index is scored on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. In October, it saw its second-consecutive monthly improvement, rising to 43 from 41 the month before – with the index component measuring expectations for the next six months up four points to 57. Carl Harris, NAHB’s chairman, says builders feel good about 2025. “While housing affordability remains low, builders are feeling more optimistic about 2025 market conditions,” Harris said. (source)

Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group releases a monthly outlook forecasting what the group believes is ahead for the economy and housing market. In October, the group says the economy is stronger than expected and should slow less than previously thought. The housing market, on the other hand, still depends a lot upon whether – and when – current homeowners decide to move. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, says affordability levels hinge on homeowners. “The timing of the long-expected pick-up in home sales activity, as well as a further moderation in home price appreciation, will depend in part on the willingness of current homeowners to relinquish their low mortgage rates by offering their homes for sale,” Duncan said. “Of course, continued strong homebuilding activity will also play a significant role as the shortage of national housing stock remains the primary impediment to affordability.” In other words, as more homes become available for sale – both old and new – buyers will begin to see better deals. (source)

Demand for mortgage applications slowed last week from one week earlier, according to new data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey found application demand down 17 percent week-over-week as average mortgage rates continued to move higher after several late-summer declines. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says rates were up for the third straight week. “Mortgage rates moved higher for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate increasing to … its highest level since August,” Kan said. Rates were up across all loan categories, including 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, 15-year fixed-rate loans, and 5/1 ARMs. Still, even at a two-month high, rates remain significantly lower than they were earlier this year. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

It’s election season again and America’s pundits and prognosticators are scouring the polls attempting to predict the outcome. But while there’s a lot of talk about the candidates and their positions, there is one potential factor that doesn’t get as much airtime: interstate movers. That’s right. Americans moving from one state to another could affect the results of this and future elections, according to a new analysis from the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website. Danielle Hale, the website’s chief economist, says even small changes can have an impact. “As more people move across state lines, their voting habits could have the potential to sway election outcomes, especially in crucial swing states, where even small changes in the electorate can tip the scales,” Hale said. Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, and Ohio are among the states the report pinpoints as possibly having a changed electorate since 2020. (source)