The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of contracts to buy homes signed each month. Because contract signings precede closings, the NAR’s index is considered a good future indicator of existing home sales numbers. In September, the index rose 7.4 percent to its highest level since March. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says the spike in signings was likely due to falling mortgage rates during the month. “Contract signings rose across all regions of the country as buyers took advantage of the combination of lower mortgage rates in late summer and more inventory choices,” Yun said. “Further gains are expected if the economy continues to add jobs, inventory levels grow, and mortgage rates hold steady.” Yun says sales should increase over the next year and beyond, as home prices and inventory levels continue to improve. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates increased last week from the week before. Rates were up across all loan categories, including 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, 15-year fixed-rate loans, and 5/1 ARMs. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says recent increases have muted overall mortgage demand. “Mortgage applications were essentially flat last week as rates increased for the fourth time in five weeks, driven by bond market volatility in advance of the presidential election and the next FOMC meeting,” Kan said. Still, despite recent rate increases, demand for loans to buy homes was up 5 percent last week and is now 10 percent higher than last year at the same time. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

Home prices are still rising, according to the latest results of the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. S&P’s index – considered among the leading measures of home price activity – has been tracking prices for nearly 30 years. The most recent release shows prices up 4.2 percent year-over-year. But while prices continue to increase, the rate of increase has slowed. For example, the previous month’s report showed prices up 4.8 percent from year-before levels. In other words, prices continue to rise but at an ever slower pace. Brian D. Luke, S&P’s CFA, head of commodities, says prices are decelerating. “Home price growth is beginning to show signs of strain, recording the slowest annual gain since mortgage rates peaked in 2023,” Luke said. “As students went back to school, home price shoppers appeared less willing to push the index higher than in the summer months. Prices continue to decelerate for the past six months, pushing appreciation rates below their long-run average of 4.8 percent.” (source)

Sales of newly built single-family homes are now at the highest level since May 2023, according to new numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In September, sales rose 4.1 percent from the previous month and were 6.3 percent higher than last year at the same time. The increase put the seasonally adjusted annual rate at 738,000 units, higher than the 720,000 units economists expected. In short, the new home market continues to outperform the market for previously owned homes. New home sales account for 15 percent of all home sales and have, over the past few years, gained steam as the inventory of existing homes for sale has been lower than historically normal. That’s resulted in more construction of new homes and more shoppers turning to the new home market for additional options. The inventory of new homes for sale is now at levels last seen in 2008. (source)

The share of current homeowners who can consider themselves equity rich remains historically high, according to ATTOM Data Solutions’ third quarter 2024 U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report. The report found 48.3 percent of mortgaged residential properties were equity rich – meaning the combined loan balances secured by those properties were no more than half the properties’ value. That’s higher than last year when it was 47.4 percent but lower than the second quarter of this year when it hit its recent peak of 49.2 percent. Rob Barber, ATTOM’s CEO, says homeowners remain in great shape. “Despite the flat pattern, home equity keeps providing a significant boost to the economy in the form of financial leverage that tens of millions of households can use to finance major purchases or investments,” Barber said. “We can expect to see small movements up or down over the coming months as the housing market moves into its annual slow season.” (source)

Sales of previously owned homes fell 1 percent in September, according to the latest numbers from the National Association of Realtors. Decreasing sales numbers were found in three of four U.S. regions, with only the West seeing an increase. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says sales have been relatively flat despite improving conditions. “Home sales have been essentially stuck at around a four-million-unit pace for the past 12 months, but factors usually associated with higher home sales are developing,” Yun said. “There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.” Yun also notes that home price increases are moderating, with wage growth now outpacing home price appreciation. That’s all good news for home buyers but it has yet to translate into closed sales. Expectations are that sales will breakout sometime soon but exactly when is anybody’s guess. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates saw mixed results last week, with little movement from the week before across all loan categories including 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, 15-year fixed-rate loans, and 5/1 ARMs. Though steady, rates remain up from last month’s lows and that’s pushed demand for mortgage applications lower, with purchase loan activity down 5 percent last week. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says buyers are still in better position than they were last year at this time. “Even though rates have been on a recent upswing, they are over a full percentage point lower than a year ago, which has kept some home buyers in the market,” Kan said. “For-sale inventory has started to loosen, and home-price growth has eased in some markets, providing more options for buyers in combination with these lower rates.” The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)