Archive for January 2014

Housing Headed In The Right Direction

January 22, 2014 Housing Market Comments Off on Housing Headed In The Right Direction

Freddie Mac’s U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for January finds four of the key housing indicators moving in the right direction to begin the year. The unemployment rate, though still high at 6.7 percent, is vastly improved and should continue its gradual path to a more consistent and historically normal level. Mortgage delinquencies have also shown great improvement, having been nearly cut in half since their peak. Finally, both affordability levels and home sales continue to trend in the right direction, with the average mortgage payment remaining very affordable in most markets – suggesting there’s still room for more recovery in home prices. Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said the housing recovery continues on a steady pace. According to Nothaft, home prices should rise about 5 percent this year, while home sales – along with other key indicators – will continue to trend in the right direction. More here.

Housing Starts Finish 2013 At Six-Year High

January 21, 2014 Housing Market Comments Off on Housing Starts Finish 2013 At Six-Year High

New residential construction ended 2013 at the highest level in six years, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. An estimated 923,400 housing units were started last year, which is 18.3 percent above year-before levels and the best total since 2007. That year, housing starts came in at 1.4 million. Still, despite a strong finish year-over-year, monthly figures fell in December. Privately-owned housing starts dropped 9.8 percent, after surging to the highest pace of the year the month before. But, though starts fell nearly 10 percent, December’s estimate was still the third best month of 2013. Also in the report, building permits were down 3 percent from the previous month. Permits – which are a barometer of future building activity – ended the year 17.5 percent above 2012’s estimate. There were an estimated 974,700 housing units authorized in 2013. More here.

S&P Case-Shiller In 2013

January 19, 2014 Housing Market Comments Off on S&P Case-Shiller In 2013
 

Builder Confidence Levels Off In January

January 17, 2014 Housing Market Comments Off on Builder Confidence Levels Off In January

After an unexpected spike in December, builder confidence in the market for newly-built, single-family homes fell a point to 56 in January, according to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index. The index – derived from a monthly survey conducted for the past 25 years – scores builders’ perception of the current market on a scale where any number above 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor. Rick Judson, NAHB’s chairman, said January’s results show that confidence is holding at a solid level. According to Judson, the fact that many markets are showing improvement bodes well for future sales of new homes. Still, all three index components suffered declines in January. The index gauging current sales fell one point to 62, while future sales dropped two and buyer traffic slipped three points. Regionally, the three-month moving averages found the Northeast and West both up four points. The South was unchanged at 56 and the Midwest fell a point to 58. NAHB chief economist David Crowe believes rising home prices, historically low mortgage rates, and significant pent-up demand will continue driving the recovery in the year ahead. More here.

Mortgage Rate Drop Spurs Demand

January 16, 2014 Housing Market Comments Off on Mortgage Rate Drop Spurs Demand

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, total mortgage loan application volume increased 11.9 percent last week due to a significant drop in the average mortgage rate. The Refinance Index was up 11 percent and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 12 percent. The previous week’s results included an adjustment for the New Year’s. Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist, said the drop in rates triggered a pickup in refinance volume, while the change in purchase activity most likely reflects an increase following the holiday season. Still, the gain in purchase demand was more than anticipated and may indicate a strong selling season this coming spring and summer. The MBA’s survey covers more than 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. More here.

Mortgage Rate Drop Spurs Demand

January 16, 2014 Housing Market Comments Off on Mortgage Rate Drop Spurs Demand

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, total mortgage loan application volume increased 11.9 percent last week due to a significant drop in the average mortgage rate. The Refinance Index was up 11 percent and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 12 percent. The previous week’s results included an adjustment for the New Year’s. Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist, said the drop in rates triggered a pickup in refinance volume, while the change in purchase activity most likely reflects an increase following the holiday season. Still, the gain in purchase demand was more than anticipated and may indicate a strong selling season this coming spring and summer. The MBA’s survey covers more than 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. More here.

Smaller Metros Leading The Housing Recovery

January 15, 2014 Housing Market Comments Off on Smaller Metros Leading The Housing Recovery

Nationwide, housing and economic activity is 86 percent back to normal, based on current permits, prices, and employment data. In fact, more than 35 percent of all markets tracked by The National Association of Home Builders Leading Market Index are operating at 90 percent or better of their previous normal. The index tracks 350 metro areas across the country and identifies those that are now approaching or exceeding their previous norms. According to the most recent release, 56 out of those 350 have returned to or surpassed their normal levels of economic and housing activity. And nearly half of the improved markets are areas with populations less than 500,000. David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist, said 45 percent of metro areas are recovering at a faster pace than the nation as a whole, with smaller markets leading the way. The results are a good sign that the housing recovery’s progress will continue in 2014. More here.

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