The National Association of Realtors recently released its 2024 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. The annual report looks at the past year of transactions and determines who is buying and selling homes and how. This year’s report shows the share of first-time home buyers hit a low over the past year, while the typical buyers’ age reached an all-time high of 56 years. Jessica Lautz, NAR’s deputy chief economist and vice president of research, says the results are a sign of the times. “The U.S. housing market is split into two groups: first-time buyers struggling to enter the market and current homeowners buying with cash,” Lautz said. “First-time buyers face high home prices, high mortgage interest rates, and limited inventory … Meanwhile, current homeowners can more easily make housing trades using built-up housing equity for cash purchases or large down payments on dream houses.” (source)

If you’re a home buyer frustrated by high home prices, what you’re really frustrated by is inventory. The supply of homes for sale has been lower than normal for most of the past decade and reached historically low levels during the pandemic. When there are too few homes for sale and plenty of interested buyers – as there were during the pandemic – home prices get pushed higher. In other words, today’s high home prices are the result of a long-standing lack of available homes for sale. The good news for buyers, though, is that inventory is now improving. In fact, according to the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website, on a typical day in October, there were 29.2 percent more homes actively for sale than there were in October 2023. October also marked the highest level of active inventory since December 2019, with new listings up in every region. The rising number of available homes for sale means buyers can expect improved affordability levels and moderating price increases in the months ahead. (source)

Home buyer affordability continued to improve in September, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The MBA’s monthly Purchase Applications Payment Index – which measures the national median mortgage payment applied for by prospective home buyers – found payments down 0.8 percent from the month before. Edward Seiler, MBA’s associate vice president, Housing Economics, and executive director, Research Institute for Housing America, says affordability is now better than it’s been in two years. “Home buyer affordability conditions improved for the fifth consecutive month, as mortgage rates … improved purchasing power for prospective buyers,” Seiler said. “Overall affordability is now at its highest level since August 2022, but the recent jump in rates will likely cause conditions to plateau.” In September, the median monthly mortgage payment fell to $2,041 from $2,057 the month before. For borrowers applying for lower-payment mortgages, payments fell to $1,369. (source)

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of contracts to buy homes signed each month. Because contract signings precede closings, the NAR’s index is considered a good future indicator of existing home sales numbers. In September, the index rose 7.4 percent to its highest level since March. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says the spike in signings was likely due to falling mortgage rates during the month. “Contract signings rose across all regions of the country as buyers took advantage of the combination of lower mortgage rates in late summer and more inventory choices,” Yun said. “Further gains are expected if the economy continues to add jobs, inventory levels grow, and mortgage rates hold steady.” Yun says sales should increase over the next year and beyond, as home prices and inventory levels continue to improve. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates increased last week from the week before. Rates were up across all loan categories, including 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, 15-year fixed-rate loans, and 5/1 ARMs. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says recent increases have muted overall mortgage demand. “Mortgage applications were essentially flat last week as rates increased for the fourth time in five weeks, driven by bond market volatility in advance of the presidential election and the next FOMC meeting,” Kan said. Still, despite recent rate increases, demand for loans to buy homes was up 5 percent last week and is now 10 percent higher than last year at the same time. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

Home prices are still rising, according to the latest results of the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. S&P’s index – considered among the leading measures of home price activity – has been tracking prices for nearly 30 years. The most recent release shows prices up 4.2 percent year-over-year. But while prices continue to increase, the rate of increase has slowed. For example, the previous month’s report showed prices up 4.8 percent from year-before levels. In other words, prices continue to rise but at an ever slower pace. Brian D. Luke, S&P’s CFA, head of commodities, says prices are decelerating. “Home price growth is beginning to show signs of strain, recording the slowest annual gain since mortgage rates peaked in 2023,” Luke said. “As students went back to school, home price shoppers appeared less willing to push the index higher than in the summer months. Prices continue to decelerate for the past six months, pushing appreciation rates below their long-run average of 4.8 percent.” (source)

Sales of newly built single-family homes are now at the highest level since May 2023, according to new numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In September, sales rose 4.1 percent from the previous month and were 6.3 percent higher than last year at the same time. The increase put the seasonally adjusted annual rate at 738,000 units, higher than the 720,000 units economists expected. In short, the new home market continues to outperform the market for previously owned homes. New home sales account for 15 percent of all home sales and have, over the past few years, gained steam as the inventory of existing homes for sale has been lower than historically normal. That’s resulted in more construction of new homes and more shoppers turning to the new home market for additional options. The inventory of new homes for sale is now at levels last seen in 2008. (source)