Traditionally, spring and summer are the housing market’s busiest seasons. Home shoppers tend to arrive as the weather begins to warm and then, as summer fades, the market tends to slow. But that doesn’t mean potential buyers should put their plans on hold until next spring. In fact, fall can be among the best times to buy and, according to a new analysis from the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website, early October, in particular, could be this year’s best time for buyers. Why? Well, for one, mortgage rates have been falling in recent weeks, making affordability levels more manageable. Danielle Hale, the website’s chief economist, says improved inventory is another reason. “Unlike the past few years, we are seeing ample for-sale inventory which could soak up any late-season demand in many markets, making the fall a great time to buy even if falling mortgage rates amp up more demand than is typical,” Hale said. “This year’s buyers who are looking for that optimum mix of ample options and the potential to save on list price are going to find some of the best market dynamics in years during the first week of October.” (source)

Fannie Mae’s monthly Home Purchase Sentiment Index is based on a survey of Americans that asks participants whether they think it’s a good time to buy or sell a home, whether they think home prices and mortgage rates will rise or fall over the next year, and how secure they feel in their job and income. In August, the index saw a 0.6 percent increase from the month before, mostly due to rising optimism about mortgage rates and home prices. Mark Palim, Fannie Mae’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says overall sentiment remained steady. “On a national level, housing sentiment was largely unchanged in August despite some positive developments for affordability, including a meaningful decline in actual mortgage rates and an uptick in home listings in certain markets, particularly in the Sunbelt,” Palim said. It’s true. The share of respondents who said it’s a good time to buy was relatively flat, falling just 1 percent from the month before, while the share who said it’s a good time to sell remained unchanged month-over-month. (source)

Americans have had good reason to be hesitant about the housing market over the past couple of years. Between skyrocketing prices during the pandemic and rising mortgage rates in the immediate aftermath, affordability became a top concern and a reason for potential home buyers to hit pause on their plans. These days, though, optimism is rising. In fact, according to one new survey, a large majority of Americans believe mortgage rates will fall in the months ahead and many of them have targeted a number that would get them to move. Among respondents, 64 percent said they were either “very encouraged” or “somewhat encouraged” that mortgage rates would drop soon. Twenty percent of respondents said they would be ready to buy if rates fell to 6 percent; 42 percent said 5 percent is their “sweet spot.” Whatever the number, it seems hesitant home buyers are finally getting ready to restart their home search. (source)

The housing market has had an inventory problem for years now. Too few homes for sale has driven prices higher, increased competition and bidding wars, and limited options for buyers. Fortunately, though, the market has finally begun to bounce back. In fact, according to new numbers from the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website, inventory has now risen for 10 straight months and was up 35.8 percent in August, pushing the number of homes for sale to its highest level since May 2020. Danielle Hale, the website’s chief economist, says this fall could be good for buyers. “As the market slows seasonally, fall is one of the best times to buy a house,” Hale said. “Falling mortgage rates are likely to bring out additional home shoppers and a busier fall season than usual, but the boost in activity is unlikely to overwhelm the usual seasonal slowdown. Shoppers, who are out this fall, are likely to face lower competition than is expected in spring 2025 as more shoppers anticipate better mortgage rates.” (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Application Survey, average mortgage rates fell again last week, with rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances and loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration down from the week before. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate loans increased week-over-week and 5/1 ARMs were unchanged. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says mortgage demand has picked up as rates have become more favorable. “Purchase applications increased more than 3 percent over the week and are inching closer to last year’s levels, with government purchase applications leading the increase,” Kan said. “Refinance applications were slightly down but continued to show strong annual gains as borrowers with higher rates have been refinancing to lower their monthly payments.” Overall, demand for mortgage applications was 1.3 percent higher week-over-week. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

Prospective home buyers who’ve been waiting for affordability conditions to improve may be in luck. According to the latest Purchase Applications Payment Index from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the typical mortgage payment applied for by borrowers in July was 1.3 percent lower than the previous month. In fact, the national median payment fell to $2,140 – with payments for lower-payment mortgages down to $1,444. Edward Seiler, MBA’s associate vice president, housing economics, and executive director, Research Institute for Housing America, says it was the third consecutive month payments fell. “Home buyer affordability conditions improved for the third consecutive month as rates … and rising housing inventory continue to bode well for prospective home buyers,” Seiler said. “MBA is expecting that slower home-price appreciation, coupled with lower rates, will ease affordability constraints and lead to increased activity in the housing market.” In other words, things are looking better for home buyers, as conditions continue to trend in a more balanced direction. (source)

When mortgage rates began rising from all-time lows a few years back, the number of Americans looking for a loan started to fall. But, according to new numbers from ATTOM Data Solutions, there was a bit of a borrower boom during the second quarter of this year. In fact, residential lending activity increased 23.2 percent from the previous quarter. Rob Barber, ATTOM’s CEO, says it was the biggest boost in years. “The mortgage industry got one of its biggest boosts in years during the second quarter, supported by a combination of the usual springtime home buyer demand coupled with more attractive mortgage rates,” Barber said. Good news for the mortgage industry is good news for borrowers, as lending activity rises when conditions are improving, and – with rates expected to come down further in months ahead – the gains look likely to continue.