The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index tracks the number of contracts to buy homes signed each month. Because contract signings precede closings, the index is considered a good indicator of future existing-home sales. In July, pending sales slowed 5.5 percent from the month before, pushing the number of signed contracts 8.5 percent below last year at the same time. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says buyers may be in a holding pattern. “A sales recovery did not occur in midsummer,” Yun said. “The positive impact of job growth and higher inventory could not overcome affordability challenges and some degree of wait-and-see related to the upcoming U.S. presidential election.” Fortunately, mortgage rates have now fallen for four consecutive weeks, which helps affordability levels and could also help inspire late summer buyers to get into the market. (source)

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates fell last week from one week earlier. Rates were down for 30-year fixed-rate loans with conforming loan balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, 15-year fixed-rate loans, and 5/1 ARMs. Jumbo loans saw a slight increase. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says it was the fourth consecutive week of declines. “Mortgage rates declined for the fourth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate at … the lowest since April 2023,” Kan said. “Rates have now come down more than 80 basis points from a year ago.” But despite more favorable rates, demand for mortgage applications was relatively flat last week, with the Market Composite Index – which measures both purchase and refinance activity – up just 0.5 percent from the week before. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. (source)

Home prices are still rising, according to the latest numbers from the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. S&P’s National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – reported a 5.4 percent year-over-year gain through the end of June. But that’s down from the previous month when prices were up 5.9 percent from the year before – which means home prices are still rising but they’re showing signs of deceleration. Brian D. Luke, head of commodities, real & digital assets at S&P, says, even as they slow, price increases are outpacing inflation. “The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices continue to show above-trend real price performance when accounting for inflation,” Luke said. “While both housing and inflation have slowed, the gap between the two is larger than historical norms, with our National Index averaging 2.8 percent more than the Consumer Price Index.” Regionally, the largest gains were seen in New York City, while Portland showed the slowest rate of increase. (source)

Home prices are still rising, according to the latest numbers from the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. S&P’s National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – reported a 5.4 percent year-over-year gain through the end of June. That’s down from the previous month when prices were up 5.9 percent from the year before. In other words, home prices continue to increase though they’re showing signs of deceleration. Brian D. Luke, head of commodities, real & digital assets at S&P, says, even as they slow, price increases are outpacing inflation. “The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices continue to show above-trend real price performance when accounting for inflation,” Luke said. “While both housing and inflation have slowed, the gap between the two is larger than historical norms, with our National Index averaging 2.8 percent more than the Consumer Price Index.” Regionally, the largest gains were seen in New York City, while Portland showed the slowest rate of increase. (source)

Home buyers are watching the housing market closely, waiting for affordability to improve before making their move. Any drop in mortgage rates seems to inspire a wave of buyers looking to take advantage of the improvement. The latest new home sales numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development are the latest evidence of that. In July, new home sales reached the highest level in more than a year, spiking 10.6 percent from the month before and climbing 5.6 percent higher than last year at the same time. The gains – credited to falling mortgage rates during the month – outpaced economists’ expectations and marked the sharpest month-over-month increase in two years. They’re also another strong sign that buyer demand remains high and could climb even higher if, and when, rates drop further. (source)

Sales of previously owned homes increased 1.3 percent in July, breaking a four-month streak of monthly declines, according to new numbers from the National Association of Realtors. The improvement, while modest, was welcome. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says conditions are beginning to get better for buyers. “Despite the modest gain, home sales are still sluggish,” Yun said. “But consumers are definitely seeing more choices, and affordability is improving due to lower interest rates.” It’s true. Mortgage rates have been trending downward and just saw their third consecutive weekly decrease. And while prices continue to rise, an increasing number of available homes for sale should help slow future increases. As it stands, total housing inventory at the end of July was up 19.8 percent from one year ago. That offers buyers more homes to choose from while helping to moderate prices. (source)

Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group releases a monthly outlook covering its expectations for the economy and housing market. In its most recent release, the group revised its forecast for home sales through the end of the year, predicting fewer than before. But with mortgage rates falling and the inventory of homes for sale rising, the news has been good for buyers. So why the revision? Mark Palim, Fannie Mae’s vice president and deputy chief economist, says home buyers remain reluctant. “On its face, the lower rate environment should be good for home sales by helping loosen the grip of the so-called ‘lock-in effect,’ in addition to aiding affordability more generally,” Palim said. “However, high-frequency data, such as mortgage applications, home showing requests, and listings views, suggest that many potential home buyers remain reluctant to make the jump.” Whether home buyers are moved to make the jump in the weeks ahead will help determine what the market looks like as it heads into fall. (source)